Whether Brown Stays May Depend On How Thick Skinned He Is, Kingston University Expert On Labour Party Leadership Predict
“If Gordon Brown were to step down now if would be because he decides to give up, not because he is forced out,” Dr Robin Pettitt, an expert on the Labour Party at Kingston University, said ahead of tonight’s Parliamentary Labour Party meeting (Monday 8 June). “Whatever else may be said about the current Prime Minister, he does not have a reputation for giving up,” he added. “My final conclusion is that Brown’s future may be largely down to how thick his skin is since his opponents have proven singularly unable to mount an effective challenge against him.”
Dr Pettitt, an expert on the internal politics of the Labour Party, was talking in the wake of the European Election results in which Labour came third, behind the Conservatives and UKIP. A lecturer in comparative politics, Dr Pettitt has carried out detailed research into party policy making and how rebel MPs and party members voice concerns about the leadership of the party. He said research showed people voted very differently in European Elections which was exemplified by UKIP coming second.
“Voters are not selecting a Government and will use the opportunity to punish those main parties they have fallen out with,” Dr Pettitt said. “This is exemplified by UKIP coming second, an impossibility in a general election. Labour still beat the Liberal Democrats and UKIP’s second place highlights the extent to which the European Parliamentary elections are not an indicator of voting intentions in a general election. Looking beyond Labour’s bad night, the main sign to be read from the result is a rejection of all three main parties. The main beneficiaries of Labour’s collapse were minor parties, not the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats. In terms of the share of the vote both these two parties were largely static.”
Dr Pettitt said Labour had suffered a “very bad blow” but felt Brown may still survive because the party’s rules made it difficult to force out a Prime Minister who did not want to go and because of the lack of an obvious challenger for the leadership. “The backbenchers who have been mobilising against Brown in recent weeks may claim to have the names of anywhere between 50 and 80 MPs willing to sign a letter asking Brown to go,” he said. “What they have not got is someone who is willing to challenge Gordon Brown for the leadership. There are plenty of people who want to be leader, including Alan Johnson the Home Secretary, David Milliband the Foreign Secretary, and his brother Ed Milliband the Secretary of state for Energy and Climate change. However, so far none of the potential future leaders have been willing to challenge Brown for the leadership. They may want to lead the Labour Party once Brown is gone, but they have not shown a willingness to try and take the leadership from him.”
Dr Pettitt concluded: “The dust is still very thick indeed and will take some time to settle, but there are reasons to believe that Gordon Brown may still survive.”
