Major EU-funded space weather initiative launched and managed in UK
A major EU-funded initiative to improve 'space weather' forecasting will hold its inaugural meeting in the UK on Tuesday 29 March. SPACECAST, an international group of space experts led by British Antarctic Survey, will develop forecasting models to help predict intense space radiation which causes damage to satellites used for positioning (GPS), communications, remote sensing and other applications.
Most satellites orbit inside the Earth's magnetic field, which acts as a protective shield. However, bursts of energetic particles from the Sun and magnetic storms at Earth can increase radiation levels inside the magnetic field to dangerously high levels. The last major magnetic storm occurred in 2003 and disrupted 47 satellites, including one scientific satellite costing $640 million, which was written off as a total loss. However, much larger magnetic storms have occurred in the past, such as the Carrington super-storm of 1859. If such a super-storm occurred today the cost of satellite disruption could be as high as $30 billion*.
The sun has an 11-year cycle of activity, which is measured by the number of 'sunspots'. The next peak in activity will occur over the next few years, but the number of large magnetic storms is expected to maximise up to two years later, at around 60 per year, between 2013 and 2015. SPACECAST will have a warning system in place by March 2012, ready for the new peak in activity and ready for Galileo - the new European constellation of 30 radio-navigation satellites.
Professor Richard Horne at British Antarctic Survey is leading the project. He says, "Today we rely more than ever on satellites for TV, Internet, GPS navigation, communications and many other applications. Space weather is a serious natural hazard and better forecasting is a priority for Europe. This is especially important as we approach maximum levels of solar activity and increased numbers of magnetic storms. SPACECAST will provide forecasts of disruptive space weather events and issue warnings and alerts for periods of high risk. It will deliver a forecasting capability that will continue beyond the lifetime of the project and lay the foundation for an operational system that will help protect our space assets.
"This initiative draws together an international team of scientists from the UK, Finland, France, Belgium and Spain and builds on four strong research collaborations with the USA."
More information:
* Odenwald, S. F., and J. L. Green (2007), Forecasting the impact of an 1859-caliber superstorm on geosynchronous Earth-orbiting satellites: Transponder resources, Space Weather, 5, S06002, doi:10.1029/2006SW000262
Provided by British Antarctic Survey
