INFORMS, MORS praise DoD counter-intelligence report on using analytics, operations research

The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) and Military Operations Research Society (MORS) today commended the U.S. Defense Department Board Task Force on Defense Intelligence for a report recommending, in part, that operations research (O.R.) and advanced analytics methods be harnessed to improve counterinsurgency in Afghanistan and other theaters.

"While the current challenges are certainly unique, one must draw upon the lessons learned on how to apply O.R. to [intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance] challenges," the report says.

Major General (retired) Richard O'Lear, co-chair of the Task Force and President/CEO of Sage Intelligence Associates, added, "I'm a strong proponent of O.R. and hope the government will begin to use it more as the budget process forces us to make some major cuts."

The presidents of INFORMS and MORS spoke highly of the report's sections on operations research.

"As intelligence agencies collect massive amounts of data about threats to the U.S. and its allies, they need sophisticated ways to sift through all this information, identify what is vital, detect patterns, and use these lessons to make the best decisions for actions to pursue, sometimes under resource or otherwise constrained circumstances," said Rina Schneur, President of INFORMS. "Operations research and advanced analytics have demonstrated that they can - and should - play such an important role in crucial intelligence decisions"

Terry McKearney, President MORS, said, "The Task Force's findings underscore our feelings that the discipline of operations research can serve the full range of efforts needed to meet the growing threats our nation faces today. MORS has highlighted the need for new analytic tools to support such contemporary problems as counter intelligence and our activities over the past few years have helped our members develop new approaches to addressing these problems. It's gratifying to see that commanders in the field and professionals in other fields are realizing the contribution O.R. can bring to the successful accomplishment of the mission." Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Defense Intelligence: Counterinsurgency (COIN) Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Operations http://www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/2011-05-COIN.pdf is dated February, 2011 and was published on May 19. It was commissioned by Director of National Intelligence James Clapper during his tenure as Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence.

The report's executive summary says it was commissioned in response to Major General Michael T. Flynn's 2010 critique of military intelligence in Afghanistan and the shortfall in serving the needs of high level decision-makers.

"It is important to recognize the intensity of the resource limitations under which the DoD is operating, the growing severity of these limitations, and the enormous costs to sustain current operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere," says the report. "However, improvements modest in their cost can be undertaken immediately. These improvements include more use of systems analysis, operations research, and planning efforts to improve the efficiencies of TTPs [tactics, techniques, and procedures] and limited ISR resources, and better inter-Service coordination…"

In 2009, Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Defense Intelligence: Operations Research Applications for Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) http://www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/2011-05-COIN.pdf recommended that defense intelligence officials take greater advantage of the advanced analytics methods that are a hallmark of operations research.

The INFORMS journal Operations Research published two key studies cited in the current report: "Confronting Entrenched Insurgents" by Edward H. Kaplan, Moshe Kress and Roberto Szechtman, and "Why Defeating Insurgencies is Hard: The Effect of Intelligence in Counterinsurgency Operations - A Best Case Scenario" by Moshe Kress and Roberto Szechtman.

Dr. Les Servi of MITRE, the former treasurer of INFORMS, served on the Task Force. INFORMS members Jack Keane of the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab and Dr. Dan Maxwell of KaDSCI LLC also served. Those interviewed during preparation of the report include retired General Stanley McChrystal, the former Commander of U.S. Forces in Afghanistan, and Michael Vickers, who currently serves as Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence.

Provided by Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences