St Petersburg University scientists develop mathematical model to predict epidemics

Mathematicians from St Petersburg University have optimised the previously developed model for forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic spread patterns. The optimised model can be used to predict the spread of any epidemic. After a month of continuous observation, the model can predict with high accuracy the number of active cases in the following three to four weeks. The University mathematicians applied this model to predict the spread of new viruses using the example of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In 2021-2022, a team of researchers from the Centre for Dynamic Process and System Analysis at St Petersburg University developed a new approach to the study of inflow and outflow systems with stochastic variables and a new methodology for predicting the dynamics of such systems. Thus, the scientists were able to identify new peaks in the incidence of the disease and the key indicators. The model was modified based on the hypothesis of the natural character of the multiple factors that influence the dynamics of these processes. Accordingly, the St Petersburg University mathematicians employed the dynamic game principles against nature as a mathematical model of decision-making in predictive modelling. It turned out that the dynamics of the spread of new viruses, as well as the dynamics of population growth within a specific country or globally, can be described using the stochastic CIR model, i.e. the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model with random parameters.

The results of applications of the developed methodology for dynamic forecasting of the active COVID-19 cases in St Petersburg and Moscow were presented at the plenary session of the scientific and practical interdisciplinary conference 'Human capital: education, labour, employment in modern society', dedicated to the 300th anniversary of St Petersburg University. The results were presented by Victor Zakharov, Head of the Centre for Dynamic Process and System Analysis at St Petersburg University, Professor in the Department of Mathematical Modelling of Energetic Systems at St Petersburg University.

Provided by St. Petersburg State University