Dutch people feel that climate and economy have a greater impact on their daily lives than migration

Migration is less of a focus of public concern in the Netherlands than is often thought. This is shown by the first results of the new People and Society Trend Monitor, a large-scale survey conducted at Tilburg University. The Dutch are mainly worried about political unrest, climate change, and the economy.

Political unrest and inflation top of the list

As part of the Trend Monitor (Mens en Maatschappij Trendmonitor), Tilburg researchers asked thousands of Dutch respondents about the most important social transitions of this moment. The open questions show that political unrest, inflation, and climate change are the themes with the biggest impact. If specific transitions were mentioned in questions, international conflicts and digitalization scored higher than demographic changes including migration.

This is at odds with the prominence given to migration in the media and in politics. "Our data show that the impact of migration is much smaller than you would expect based on the public debate," says researcher Tom Junker.

Demographic factors hardly play a role

The Trend Monitor is a tool to investigate how people are dealing with changes in society and what this means for themes like inequality, diversity, and mental health. The survey makes use of the LISS (Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social Sciences) panel, a representative group of 4,500 households from across the Netherlands. The data of different studies can be combined, creating a rich picture of the daily lives of the Dutch.

"Combining our findings with data on education level and work allows us to better understand how people are affected by social changes," Junker explains.

This has yielded intriguing insights. For instance, characteristics like age, educational level, and living environment prove to play only a very minor role: they explain only about five percent of the differences.

"This shows the importance of directly asking the population: it can yield a picture that differs from our ideas as researchers," says researcher Loes Abrahams. At the very least, it puts the image of a deeply divided society into perspective.

Impact of the elections

In the run-up to the elections, migration was the political spearhead. Could the debate now be influencing the Dutch more strongly than the research indicates? That will have to be measured again, Abrahams says, "The way in which migration is now discussed can certainly have an effect on how people assess its impact. I'm very curious what the new study will show."

Also as regards other subjects, the public seem to be more interested in other themes than the ones that dominate in the media. "Three years ago, there was a much bigger focus on climate change. Media attention for this subject seems to have waned, but our data show that it continues to be one of the public's most important concerns," Junker states. "If we hear and read a lot about migration, that pushes other themes into the background."

Climate evokes the strongest emotions

In a second round of the monitoring, the emotions experienced by the respondents with respect to the various social transitions were investigated. Climate change especially evokes negative feelings, much more than demographic changes or artificial intelligence.

According to Abrahams, it is remarkable that it continues to be one of the most important topics despite the fact that climate change doesn't get so much media attention anymore. Moreover, only few people spontaneously mentioned AI as an important theme. However, the researchers expect this to change quickly as a result of the growing media attention for this technology.

From research to policy

Although the Trend Monitor is still in its initial phase, the researchers want to better inform policymakers on the things that really worry Dutch citizens. To that end, contact has already been established with advisory organizations like the Dutch Social and Economic Council (SER). "What is happening in the media can influence policy," Junker states. "But the media do not necessarily reflect what people are really thinking."

Follow-up study: Behavior and adaptation

In the coming months, the third round of the study will start, investigating how people adapt their behavior to social changes. Ultimately, the Trend Monitor will give insight into ways in which people can be assisted in these transitions. "For instance regarding AI: people will have to prepare for the impact of the technological developments on their jobs," Junker explains.

The report, "The human side of transition: Demographic patterns in public perceptions of societal change," is available online.

More information:
Abrahams, L, Piyasinchai, B, Junker, T, Hoedjes, M, Klaiber, P, Janssens, K, Bechara, J & Bogaerts, S 2025, The human side of transition: Demographic patterns in public perceptions of societal change. Tilburg University. research.tilburguniversity.edu … ss_panel_phase_1.pdf

Provided by Tilburg University